AADIS Epidemiological Model

Smarter planning for animal disease threats

Richard Bradhurst — Tue, 17 Mar 2026 11:46:45 +0000

Thank you to the Australian Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry for a great article on the expansion of the AADIS FMD model to include feral pigs.

The AADIS FMD and ASF modelling projects are great examples of researchers at CEBRA Analytics working side-by-side with federal and state governments, and industry to produce pragmatic decision support tools for emergency animal diseases. www.aadis.org/projects/

https://www.agriculture.gov.au/about/news/smarter-planning-disease-animal-threats

Animal Health Australia Member Engagement Week 4th March 2026

Richard Bradhurst — Mon, 16 Mar 2026 11:34:48 +0000

Thank you Animal Health Australia for the invitation to present at the AHA Members Engagement Week in Canberra. Very happy to share updates on AADIS modelling projects undertaken with animal health authorities and livestock industries in Australia and overseas (including H5 bird flu, lumpy skin disease, JE, FMD, ASF, PPR, sheep/goat pox, and rabies).

And introducing……the Australian EAD Modelling Hub!! An exciting new initiative to provide pragmatic EAD modelling support (preparedness, real-time response, and post-outbreak surveillance) for jurisdictional animal health authorities in Australia.

ABC News Breakfast 2nd March 2026

Richard Bradhurst — Mon, 02 Mar 2026 19:36:54 +0000

A/Prof Richard Bradhurst and Dr Michelle Wille from the University of Melbourne were interviewed by Nate Interview with Nate Byrne on ABC News Breakfast.

Michelle described the global impact of H5N1 bird flu and potential arrival pathways into Australia. Richard described how the AADIS model assists Government and Industry stakeholders prepare for the arrival of exotic viruses by simulating thousands of possible incursion scenarios and testing the cost effectiveness of various response options.

ABC News Breakfast

University of Melbourne article on the AADIS H5 bird flu model

Richard Bradhurst — Sun, 01 Mar 2026 19:56:39 +0000

Article published by the University of Melbourne on the AADIS H5 bird flu model – a great example of collaboration between researchers, industry, and government.

https://pursuit.unimelb.edu.au/articles/a-computer-simulation-is-helping-to-prepare-australia-for-h5-bird-flu?in_c=topstoryblock_1

26th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation 2025 (MODSIM2025) – Adelaide, South Australia, 30 Nov – 4th Dec 2025

Richard Bradhurst — Mon, 08 Dec 2025 12:16:14 +0000

The 26th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation 2025 (MODSIM2025) at the Adelaide Convention Centre was a great conference. Research Fellow Madalene Oberin presented a poster on how the AADISmodel can be used to investigate spillover transmission between domestic and feral pigs during African swine fever outbreaks.

As AADIS is a stochastic model, it occasionally generates ‘black swan’ outbreaks which balloon up to devastating size and impact. A/Prof Richard Bradhurst gave a presentation on how AADIS can be used to investigate the epidemiological triggers behind black swan FMD outbreaks and how the chance of a black swan increases greatly if FMD is introduced in a willful and targeted manner as opposed to accidentally.

Feral pigs can pose biosecurity challenges at cattle feedlots – Australian Pork Newspaper

Richard Bradhurst — Mon, 01 Dec 2025 01:21:05 +0000

NSW Vertebrate Pest Management Symposium, Coffs Harbour 21-23 October 2025

Richard Bradhurst — Thu, 23 Oct 2025 19:53:37 +0000

Keynote address at the NSW Vertebrate Pest Management Symposium in Coffs Harbour. The Australian Animal Disease Spread Model (AADIS) is Australia’s official decision support tool for emergency animal diseases. Devastating diseases such as foot-and-mouth disease and African swine fever have the potential to bounce back and forth between livestock and feral populations. Outcomes from feral pig GPS collaring and camera trap studies are directly used to parameterise AADIS to inform preparedness and response.

So many great presentations on the study and management of pest vertebrates (such as feral pigs, deer, cats, foxes, dogs, cane toads, etc.). Fantastic to meet so many unsung heroes doing work that is critical to Australia’s animal, plant and environmental health.

NSW Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry CEBRA Analytics Local Land Services Invasive Species Council Wildlife Health Australia NSW National Parks and Wildlife Service University of Melbourne James Cook University University of New England (AU) Centre for Invasive Species Solutions Australian Pork Limited National Feral Pig Action Plan

DACh Epidemiology Conference 2025, Hannover, Germany

Richard Bradhurst — Fri, 05 Sep 2025 01:04:22 +0000

Congratulations to our wonderful colleague Dr Tatiana Marschik from the University of Veterinary Medicine Vienna for being awarded Best Poster Presentation at DACh Epidemiology Conference 2025 in Hannover, Germany. The study used the European adaption of AADIS (EuFMDiS) to characterise the FMD outbreak in Hungary and assess the risk of spread into Austria.

University of Vermont Modelling Summit, Fort Collins, CO, USA

Richard Bradhurst — Wed, 13 Aug 2025 02:00:21 +0000

So nice to be back in Fort Collins, Colorado for a University of Vermont modelling summit. Inspiring to hear about the great animal health work being undertaken by the University of Vermont, Colorado State University, Kansas State University, USDA-CEAH and FAO. Happy to share how the Australian AADIS model was expanded to include the spread of ASF & FMD in feral pigs plus vector-borne spread of lumpy skin disease in cattle.

Australian Pork Newspaper – Assessing likelihood of disease transmission risks from feral pigs using camera trap surveillance

Richard Bradhurst — Wed, 30 Jul 2025 00:41:50 +0000